产业结构调整的低碳效应测度——基于NSGA-Ⅱ遗传算法

如今,中国面临高速发展与低碳的深层次矛盾,产业结构调整被普遍认为是一种有效的低碳发展途径;为测算产业结构变动产生的低碳效应,本文构建了投入产出多目标优化模型,以江苏省为例,采用带精英策略的非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-Ⅱ)模拟运算,求得Pareto最优解集;与以往研究不同,本文缩小范围,集中关注产业结构因素,更具针对性,所采用的遗传算法在该领域内运用得还不多。结果表明:在保证稳定增长与就业的前提下,产业结构调整作为减少碳排放的手段仍在一定范围内有效;应推动低能耗、低排放、高附加值的高新技术产业和新兴产业,发展包括现代服务业在内的低碳型第三产业;节能技术的创新开发和应用,技术进步与结构调整的协调一致,是关键所在。     

基于帕累托最优配置的碳排放许可证拍卖机制

兑现2020年碳减排目标的承诺为我国碳交易市场的建立提供了新的契机,同时使得"如何以最小化经济增长冲击降低二氧化碳排放量"成为一个焦点问题。本文针对"如何有效配置碳排放许可证"做一个前瞻性研究,把帕累托最优概念引入碳排放许可证拍卖—交易框架,设计一个新的碳排放许可证拍卖机制,其规则相对简单,仅有四步构成,易于被市场参与者理解和接受,而且在有限时间内此机制收敛于一个帕累托最优配置,从而实现了碳排放许可证资源的有效利用,在没有平局出现的约束下,最终的均衡配置是唯一的。此外,文中的拍卖机制不仅能最大化卖方的收益,而且买方还拥有占优竞标策略,这些优点决定了此机制在将来的商业应用中能被买卖双方所青睐。最后,用一个具体案例解释新机制的操作过程及其在实践中的可行性,为环境交易所提供一个备选的交易方案。     

The ethics behind efficiency

The normative elements underlying efficiency are more complex than generally portrayed and rely upon ethical frameworks that are generally absent from classroom discussions. Most textbooks, for example, ignore the ethical differences between Pareto efficiency (based on voluntary win-win outcomes) and the modern Kaldor-Hicks efficiency used in public policy assessments (in which winners gain more than losers lose). For the latter to be ethically palatable, society must have in place basic institutions of justice, transparency, and accountability. Normative economics thus requires a pluralist approach that includes considerations of virtue and duty, closer to Adam Smith's Enlightenment conceptions. This surprising finding should embolden economics teachers to engage students with critical thinking problems that are controversial and relevant, and which better prepare students for a complex world.     

中央与地方国有资本收益分配的帕累托改进——基于制度变迁的视角

自1949年以来,中央与地方国有资本收益分配关系历经起伏,以改革开放和分税制为时间节点,大致分三个阶段:统收统支、税利合一、税利分流。回溯我国中央与地方国有资本收益分配制度的历史轨迹,剖析其动因,不难发现,中央与地方国有资本收益分配关系的变革是一个帕累托改进的过程。未来,优化中央与地方国有资本收益分配应改革国有资产管理体制,加快建立健全国有资本经营预算,走适度分权的道路。     

On the estimation of the parameters for the Littlewood model in software reliability

A very well-known model in software reliability theory is that of Littlewood (1980). The (three) parameters in this model are usually estimated by means of the maximum likelihood method. The system of likelihood equations can have more than one solution. Only one of them will be consistent, however. In this paper we present a different, more analytical approach, exploiting the mathematical properties of the log-likelihood function itself. Our belief is that the ideas and methods developed in this paper could also be of interest for statisticians working on the estimation of the parameters of the generalised Pareto distribution. For those more generally interested in maximum likelihood the paper provides a 'practical case', indicating how complex matters may become when only three parameters are involved. Moreover, readers not familiar with counting process theory and software reliability are given a first introduction.     

中国收入差距究竟有多大?——对修正样本结构偏差的尝试

本文讨论了中国居民收入差距估计中所可能出现的各种偏差,并对收入定义、样本权重结构、抽样偏差以及地区间货币购买力差异进行调整,试图得到比较客观的收入差距衡量指标。本文利用了帕累托分布修正住户调查抽样偏差对收入差距指标的影响。本文的估计结果表明,中国居民收入的基尼系数达到了较高的程度。高收入人群样本的偏差导致了城镇内部收入差距的严重低估,也导致了城乡之间收入差距和全国收入差距的较大程度的低估。     

Vilfredo pareto and contemporary economics: Social equilibrium, fiscal decentralisation and economic growth

During the second decade of the twentieth century, Vilfredo Pareto’s influence on the fiscal scholarship of Guido Sensini, Gino Borgatta and others in Italy was significant. In the 1920s a unique approach to fiscal thought developed which was grounded in the Paretian notion of social equilibrium. This study highlights the main features of this approach and considers why it went into decline from the 1930s and terminated in the 1950s. The paper also points to a potential benefit from integrating Aldo Scotto’s pioneering work on fiscal decentralisation with the Paretian fiscal thought of Sensini and Borgatta as part of a modern research program on the relationship between fiscal decentralisation and economic growth. (JEL:A12, B31, H00)     

At the origin of post-war mainstream of economics: On pareto’s influence on economic theory

Allais (1968) maintained that Pareto’s influence on the development of economics was felt only after considerable delay and was confined to Italy and France. This paper provides a reconstruction of the intellectual dissemination of Pareto’s thought through Europe and the United States in the period 1900–1940, showing that it was influential in the period from c.1900 to the mid-1920s and that in the 1930s it was highly important in the foundation of mainstream post-war economic theory, although in a more elusive way than before.(JEL:B13, B16, B21, B23, B31)     

The Zilcha criteria for dynamic inefficiency reconsidered

We reconsider necessary and sufficient conditions for dynamic inefficiency given in Zilcha (J Econ Theory 52:364–379, 1990, J Econ Theory 55:1–16, 1991) and a critique by Rangazas and Russell (2005). First, we show that the characterization given in Zilcha (1990) for nonstationary economies is correct and correct Zilcha’s proof. Second, using this insight, we complement Rangazas and Russell’s (Econ Theory 26:701–716, 2005) discussion of the counterexamples to Zilcha (J Econ Theory 55:1–16, 1991). Third, we discuss consequences of our results for applied tests of (in-)efficiency based on the Zilcha criteria. We would like to thank Itzhak Zilcha, and in particular Peter Rangazas and Steve Russell for detailed and very helpful comments.     

弃“二八”走“长尾”——解析温州产业发展模式

改革开放后,温州一夜间成为了中国民营经济最发达的城市。温州为何能形成独具优势的产业集群,由穷乡僻壤走向产业繁荣的经济大都市!本文通过对温州人思维模式的研究分析,应用“长尾理论”解析了温州产业发展的模式。